The Big Realisation: Part 2

Sticking our head in the (Middle Eastern) sand

Oil is at the heart of nearly every single product and service in our lives. 90% of all transport, 95% or all goods in shops, and 95% of all food produced requires oil either directly as a raw material or indirectly as fuel to run machinery. Nearly every aspect of our current lives depends on oil. And the relative stability of our current economy depends of oil to be plentiful and therefore, cheap. If the cost of oil goes up, the cost of nearly everything else goes up. Oil is at the very heart of the global economy and if the price of oil shoots up because of limited supply then recession is not far behind. This has certainly been the case in the past when we have seen oil prices spike in the 70’s and 80’s creating economic chaos for millions. The difference this time is that instead of a perceived shortage of oil caused by the political chicanery of OPEC, it is a geological reality.

The effects of this are seismic. If the resource that is at the heart of every aspect of our lives cannot be produced at a rate that can keep pace with increasing global demand, then economic chaos is a logical consequence. And the real irony is that our ability to shift to alternative sources of energy production requires oil to make it happen. A lot of oil is needed to make wind turbines. As the cost of a barrel of oil goes up, our ability to afford the expensive transition to other sources of energy becomes more challenging. Perhaps it is best summed up by an article in The Times that starts with the statement, “Oil ruled the 20^th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21^st.

But surely this is overstating things. So I did some informal research starting with a hand-selected target group – my friends. I asked what people knew about this subject of Peak Oil and whether they were concerned about it or not. Most people were aware of the story as a fringe issue that sometimes appeared as a small segment on the TV news or in the business section of newspapers or news websites. And nearly all the participants in my sample were quick to state that they were sure that alternative energy sources would be brought into use very quickly to replace our oil-addicted lifestyle replacing it with some other technology or energy source, or something. No one imagined for a second that we would need to change our behaviours beyond what was already imagined to address global warming and climate change. But also, no one had any idea who would be driving this change to a new, oil-free way of life, nor was there any idea what the magic solution might be. Everyone was pretty sure it was going to be OK because, at the very least, the US government wouldn’t allow the situation to descend into economic chaos.

Although I like my friends a lot, this didn’t make me feel very reassured.

I carried on with other research into the issue to see what was being said about it. There are obviously strong opinions coming at this from a multitude of perspectives, but there are two basic camps: the people who think we have more than 20 years left before we hit peak oil production, and those who feel that peak oil is imminent or has already happened. The interesting thing is that there is no real dispute about if the oil is running out, the debate is how soon.

Part 3: A few facts and a few questions